Multilevel Political Connections and Interest Intermediation: Identifying Political Alliances with Social Media Data

• Gelape, Lucas; Meireles, Fernando; Rocha, Marta Mendes da; Duque, Guilherme de Abreu. 2026. Multilevel Political Connections and Interest Intermediation: Identifying Political Alliances with Social Media Data. Journal of Politics in Latin America.

Abstract:

It is common, both in unitary and federal countries, for politicians at different levels to cooperate in pursuit of mutual benefits. But how can we identify who cooperates with whom to investigate the factors behind these alliances? This article proposes a novel strategy to detect alliances between local executive leaders and national legislators using mayors’ social media data. Drawing on over two million posts from nearly 2000 Brazilian mayors, we develop, through a supervised machine learning model, an indicator that measures the strength of mayor-congressperson relationships. Our findings show that most connections are relatively weak, though partisanship is positively associated with stronger ties. Our approach offers a low-cost, replicable alternative to traditional methods for studying political intermediation. It advances the understanding of multilevel political dynamics in presidential systems with strong local executives and highlights the role of local elected officials as key, yet often overlooked, brokers in comparative politics.

Figura: Distribution of the Relationship Strength Indicator by Social Network.

Source: the authors, from TSE’s and CrowdTangle’s Data.